BOT - Anything but charting, page-9976

Kaken sold 350 000 scripts . With no re- fills!! So, they have more or less 300 000 customers.

Most customers are new.we can not under- estimate refills in US context. Allowed to be sent to diagnosed parents automatically by mail!this is 4x , 5x ot max 12xbrocker report is rubbish- stupid conservative ( telling us they will get to 1% market share in 8-10 years)
As Matt said , 30% is what a novel best in class drug nirmally gets..

1. We have 3.7mln diagnosed ( known) patients - when we get even 5% of them ( Matt says 30%) > that is 185 000 patients ; 185 000 patients will order 5 refills = 925 000 items sold** WHEN YOU SELL 925 000 ITEMS at usd net 500 = 500mln Net

2. 6.3mln patient - silent sufferers ( undiagnosed) who are searching for drug on internet. Once we get 2% of them this is another usd 300mln


Blind Freddy can see that revenue of usd 1bln is clearly on the cards...10 to 12x Revenue Market Cap Metric is reasonable for growing pharma with FDA protection...

Give them 6-12month to execute and we will see trajectory....SP of aud 3 to aud 12 is where we can be in next 12-18months..

For many, it will be life changing- if you have patience