I hope everyone is feeling a lot less emotional today, lets dive in:
Good raise by BOT management here, albeit some delayed gratification to come for the long term holders. BOT wants to do this on their own and now have the funds to do exactly that. I agree this did kill immediate momentum, I agree they might have been able to do it at a premium, however I disagree that half of you know what BOT management should have done, you simply don't know enough of what's happened behind the scenes. For those arguing they get cheap "de-risked shares", buying six months ago after a CRL for a label change really seemed like a solid play, no? You would be sitting on a 100% gain with a company that just concreted in its future success.
Lets get technical:
The chart dipped on open, I'd say this was mostly retail. Once the price pushed down today 33-34 region, the large buys started to occur. Accumulation is seen in the book around this area and price started to consolidate. This show sellers drying out (retail) and entities with bigger pockets starting to grab shares. A very simple way I look at this: Stocks either go up due to buyers, or down due to sellers. If a stock is going down and it stalls in a range, it means sellers are running out of gas, it gives the buyers a opportunity to regain control. Which occurred on Friday. See 2min chart below.
On the daily,
1. Enormous volume, and for anyone watching - alot of serious buys occurring at the end of the day even as we pass 36c. (see above chart).
2. The daily candle itself shows the entire story, sellers pushing it down, buyers clearly outweighing sellers and pushing the price right back up. This
is one of the most bullish candles that can print on a chart. It tells you value was found around 33.5c, sentiment changed and value was then found all the way up to 36c.
3. No one knows what will happen next, the way I see it, those that wanted to get out - got out on Friday. These are the people who were in for a huge increase or gap up, people who were emotional about a cap raise, and people who most likely frantically bought back on close at higher prices.
So now, with a perfect opportunity to sell if 'you dont like the news' now passed, we are left with a bunch of shareholders who see value in the stock and at the very least - the current price.
4. The dust will settle over the weekend, news spreads and now I think the stock can move freely, 58 million traded on the day. This volume alone gets people talking, and its not often you see it on a chart and the stock does nothing... Institutions and retail alike have their fill now and the good outweighs the bad. After all:
Bot now has serious cash in the bank, and approved product, multiple professional institutions now involved - I expect to see a run up at least until next friday when CR shares hit the market.
Just to reiterate, this is my short term view only. Long term this should hit $1 if sales come through with decent form.
Interesting week ahead me thinks,
Jake D
(20min delay)