BOT 2.70% 38.0¢ botanix pharmaceuticals ltd

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  1. 5,183 Posts.
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    Honestly Hank, I don't think you know what you're talking about.

    There are so many variables that could affect the price in one year.
    We've been told that the unit sale price is $750, and it should last a month.
    Does a user, use it sparingly, so they don't have to pay 12 months' worth?
    We've been told that there are 16 million users that need Sofdra, plus more elsewhere that they can tap into..
    What percentage are going to buy/use it, and how often are they going to replenish their scripts?
    What are the actual CoG's/expenses per unit, is it greater than 50%, or less?
    Don't say Hartley's because you don't even know if that's right.
    EPS in 2026, say 2 years @ 350%, is that a fair value, or is it undermining it?

    And you're saying that the current price has already been factored into expected next year's earnings.

    Say based on 16M users needing Sofdra, only 2% get scripts for only 6 months and the CoG's is 60% and we add in only a 3.5% P/E.
    That gives us a price of $1.14 per share, based on the existing Shares on Market 1.775B.

    Or if I ramp it up a bit, 16M users, still only 2% but getting scripts for 10 months, GoG's 50% and still 3.5% P/E, = $2.37.

    Mind you, that's before tax, not NPAT.
 
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