Ok.... mind if I put my 2 cents in . Your analyst has some seriously floored logic, but in either case - somewhere you have moved a decimal in the wrong position.
Using your numbers
$540 Net sales ( I'm going to assume here you mean $540 payment to BOT out of a gross sale of around $750 USD )
$540 USD = $812 AUD Net per product.
Operating expenses ( 18.8 million AUD )
5% Net product royalty ( $771 AUD royalty paid )
30% tax ( $540 AUD, after royalties and 30% tax)
600 Million Divide by 25 = 24M NPAT.
24M + 18.8 operating cost = 42M AUD
42M Divide by 540 AUD = 77,000 Sales, or on USA average 38,888 patients, each getting 2 scripts..... No where near 850,000 scripts.
So.... they are saying BOT will only achieve 20% of the patient numbers than Kaken did at launch...... That bad....really?
Seems like a waste of 70 million on the launch in that case.
In the first 2 months of sales in Japan, Kaken sold 35,000 units,
In the first full year, Kaken sold 195,000 units.
In fact.... If you annualise the first 2 month sales to 12 month sales, it's actually 210,000 units annual rate immediately.
To inject some more reality.
Ignoring the fact that USA has 3 times the population, and they love their derma prodcuts more than Japan does.
Just assuming BOT matches 200,000 patients first 12 months as Kaken did. ( Japan average is 1 refill per patient , USA average is 2 refills per patient ).
That would give BOT 400,000 units in the first year for 200,000 patients.
400,000 x 540 = 216M AUD ( units times post tax, post royalty net price )
216 minus 18.8
197M NPAT...... Matching BOT's patient numbers.
197 x 25PE ..... 4.9B AUD MC
Current market cap... 600M
Adjustment = 800% SP increase.
Again - they were using some of your analyst numbers ( not mine ), but you can see with BOT achieving similar market breakout as Kakan... SP will massively, massively, massively re-rate, and that did not even take into account at all US patient population 3 times the size, which will have a positive effect, or the expected increase in refills for USA patients, which will have a massive effect, of doubling the sales with every extra refill VS what Kaken did in Japan. These effects are so massive that any operating costs etc get dwarfed into being relatively non existant. Only Tax and the 5% royalty would be the main impactors after net sales on profit margin.
9,000 sales in the Dec quarter is about the rate that would match a 600M MC.... They about to spend about 9 Million AUD on manufacturing and transport... it ain't for 9,000 bottles ( or 2 bottle sales per day total in each USA state ). Ludicristly low.
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