BOT

5.48%

34.5¢ botanix pharmaceuticals ltd

Bot Chart, page-13401

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Radman22

13 Posts.

26/06/24

15:26

Post #: 74496393

Originally posted by ozchemist: ↑
I tried to run some sensitivity analysis on the figures - and allowing for the widely varying reports - this is what I came up with :

Assumptions :
Note - all base figures are in US$
1. Base adressable market of 3,500,000 patients
2. Gross Sale Price per unit $750 - invariant
3. Retailer markup is 40% which equals 28.4% "discount" to retail vs Gross Sales Price = Net Sales Price to Botanix = $537 - invariant
4. COGS (RM/Packaging/Labour/logistics) 40% (Pharma Typical is 25.7%) = $214.80/unit - reducing (Pharma Typ would be $138.00)
5, OP-EX (Non-COGS salaries - sales force/admin/tech/IT/rent/utilities/marketing) 30% = $161.10/unit - reducing (Static @ $11.25MM/annum)
6. Royalty @ 5% of Net Sales Price = $26.85 - invariant
7. This leaves a Nett (before tax) of $134.25 / unit
8. After Tax of $93.98 / unit - 17.5% margin on Nett Sales Price after tax
9. A$/US$ = 0.66

Invariant items do not change with volume growth.
COGS will reduce over a production experience curve - approx 1% reduction for every 70000 units produced until Pharma Typical
OP-EX will reduce vs unit sales - assumption is "fixed cost" of $11.25MM/yr total

70000 units/annum = 1% adressable market share @ 2 units/patient (COGS @ 40% / OPEX @ $161.10/unit)
700000 units per annum = 5% adressable market share @ 4 units/patient (COGS @ 33% / OPEX @ $16.10/unit)

Scripts/annum NETT $ EPS EPS * 25 AUD/share
1 70000 $6578250.00 $0.004 $0.10 $0.16
2 140000 $21576660.00 $0.013 $0.34 $0.51
3 210000 $37101330.00 $0.023 $0.58 $0.88
4 280000 $53152260.00 $0.033 $0.83 $1.26
5 350000 $69729450.00 $0.044 $1.09 $1.65
6 420000 $86832900.00 $0.054 $1.36 $2.06
7 560000 $120513540.00 $0.075 $1.88 $2.85
8 700000 $155246700.00 $0.097 $2.43 $3.68
Expand
great analysis. COGS of $214 per unit seems a little high. In Japan they sell product for around $70 and are making a profit?

https://botanixpharma.com/wp-content/uploads/BOT.ASX-BOT-Commercial-Day-Webinar-051324.pdf

figure 8 in the EU report linked above has COGS at $103 per unit. As mentioned before I think EU figures around costs are pretty solid…their sales figures I hope are on the conservative side.

BOT Price at posting: 34.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

5 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Bot Chart, page-13401

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	Scripts/annum	NETT $	EPS	EPS * 25	AUD/share
1	70000	$6578250.00	$0.004	$0.10	$0.16
2	140000	$21576660.00	$0.013	$0.34	$0.51
3	210000	$37101330.00	$0.023	$0.58	$0.88
4	280000	$53152260.00	$0.033	$0.83	$1.26
5	350000	$69729450.00	$0.044	$1.09	$1.65
6	420000	$86832900.00	$0.054	$1.36	$2.06
7	560000	$120513540.00	$0.075	$1.88	$2.85
8	700000	$155246700.00	$0.097	$2.43	$3.68

Bot Chart, page-13401

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