Excellent breakdowns and forecasts, thank you for sharing these...

Excellent breakdowns and forecasts, thank you for sharing these varying numbers.

One thing though is that you've accounted for 2 units per patient when the bottle is 50mL and would be more likely prescribed monthly (assumed on the Japanese Ecclock being in a 20g bottle and prescribed fortnightly). It's more likely to be 6-12 units per patient, 12 being for patients with good adherence and require it daily, 6 being for patients who either have poor adherence (i.e. go through phases of not using a product, forgets to apply the product daily - I'm personally terrible at remembering to take some medications routinely, etc.), or don't need it daily.

I'll be interested to see the figures that come out in January after the first quarter of proper sales, hopefully the company can give a breakdown of the number of units sold so we can get some more accurate numbers.