There's a reason Buffet and all the other great investors don't try to time the market and instead relies on time in the market. It's not that you're bad at timing it, it's that nobody can time this stuff (anyone who says you can is either a broker, the tax man or is trying to sell a course)
Gamblers at a casino get better odds than what you cited for traders, those in the 3% are more likely to simply be lucky than to have any unique skill set.
There's a reason Buffet and all the other great investors...
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