Please read this as I wrote this for you to provide my version of the world which in turn will help you, I believe.
The share price right now reflects a 600m Market Cap. This is not a cheap price to pay for something when you are not absolutely certain of the outcome.
For example, Speculators in the Sydney property market pay up to 20% less on an unbuilt apartment by a reputable builder and developer at today's prices, knowing fully well that in most major cities the price will be up 10% minimum, let alone Sydney, on a 50 year record of higher highs, by the time the apartment is finished, and it will be finished as per the purchased agreement with a very low risk of anything going wrong.
In our case, it would be a VERY REASONABLE to pay 30 cents ($600 million) for a week on week new patient subscriber rate of 500 patients per week. Based on the outgoings, we would see only a modest statutory net profit after a full year at this pace, and we certainly would not break even cashflow. These funds know this, because they can calculate it based on reasonable assumptions just like you and I when we're trained financially in this way.
To pay 52 cents for this stock (pay over $1 BILLION), would be assuming a much better outcome than what is currently reported as the going concern. Some might think it's worth more based on obvious signals but are required to see proof in the pudding as part of their institutions policy and internal checklists, to attain sign off from the directors.
Some more agile funds might operate in a risky zone to a gain a position before the proof comes out, ahead of everyone else. This was EUROZ, and they took on a 3% position.
Other funds aren't interested anymore, they don't want to take this risk anymore, they took the risk already when they bet on a small cap reaching this point, made 5x on average, and now they want out. This was Argonaut and Taylor Colisons, and some of JP's customers. They are not equipped or prepared to pay 52c (1 BILLION dollars) for a company which they can't say for certain will or will not break even cashflow, nor do they want to. They rode it up from a few cents and have taken their risk and now taking the gain.
So to say that something is "structurally wrong" when the share price is reflecting SIX HUNDRED MILLION dollars in value $600m... well that price does not reflect anything is wrong at all. It is simply showing that at this size, we've reached another level of sophistication from risk takers. They need material proof which will come in July. And without that proof, we're not going to get the bidding size (+5 - 10m shares plus daily on the buy orders) that is required to absorb trading float (holding funds like UBS, and trading funds chopping around making pip profits) to take a meaningful position in the company.
Certainly if the July results project that we are gaining over 700-800 new patients per week, the timelines to profitability and net cash break even accelerate, and the stock will be seen as more valuable accordingly by the prudent funds. they will then buy it from $600m up to $1.2B and higher quite easily as it's justified.
From there the originally risk averse might be more interested in extrapolating the next quarters growth... and this is when the fun begins.
S
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