I I tend to agree we haven’t seen a true bottom yet — but I don’t believe the market is pricing in structural failure as some have suggested. It feels more like a pause at a fair value equilibrium, waiting for fresh validation to rerate.
As Saucy put it well, institutions need hard data before redeploying at scale — and until then, we’re stuck in this holding pattern.Yes, recent institutional exits surprised many, but perhaps not if you accept that they were harvesting outsized gains from calculated early risk-taking — not expressing a bearish view.
A few key questions I keep coming back to: What happens if sales underperform? Could we be dropped from the ASX300? Is BOT pre-empting this by scaling with credit, aiming to hit profitability faster? Will they pursue new markets with 12.5% Sofdra or fast-track another asset now that the Sofdra machine is built? And what about BP — will they pay the premium and remove all uncertainty?I think the real issue for funds is they simply can’t forecast Sofdra's full trajectory until post-July.
Everything is foggy until then — refill trends, expansion plans, potential deals. Even the macro backdrop has shifted — we've just entered our second war and second U.S. president since Sofdra launched.
BOT’s own roadmap, first released almost 18 months ago, is nearing its endpoint. The market’s next major decision point is coming up fast — but for now, I see this as balance, not breakdown.
I still think this is a good price to buy, if traders can get in at 0.26-0.28 / 0.30-0.35 with the outlook and risk we have is very attractive.
BOT Price at posting:
29.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)