I'm secretly, and now publicly, expecting 1000-1300 pw new customer sign up.
Existing Derma's doing 500pw was from the first 2.5 months sales team imitative only no digital- say they sign up another similar size batch of derma over these last 3 months, that takes us up to 1000pw from dermas. (500 previous quarter run rate plus 500 new).
then account for a 10% drop off from dermas just moving on / forgetting / running out of their customer base so we get 850-950pw from dermas direct sales initative.
Digital was only 9 weeks old in the previous April update with 500pw new customers. major capital has just been injected into expanding digital, which includes platform advertising to gain traffic via the digital campaign.
That is a dark horse, can easily pull in 150-250 pw new customers OR MORE and in reality could go beyond into 400-500pw new customers after its been optimized into tapping the 6m patient customer base. OR MORE.
lower end target: 850 sales + 150 digital = 1,000pw upper end target: 950 sales + 250 digital = 1,200pw
and its only July lol.
This will be the most successful derma product launch ever. noting the recent note by Dr Boreham, only 1900 dermatologists are signing up over 1.3 million scripts a year for similar comparison Solodyn, and this is not using the refill mechanism that botanix has, so assume a customer penetration of oer 300,000 patients. this was likely 1-2 scripts per patient, not 10-12.
take into account the Japan precedent doing around 250,000 new customers per annum. US market 3x bigger. our marketing strategy is better. We're smarter. Our drug is more efficacious. Our growth rate is EXCEEEEEDING expectations. The share price is ridiculously discounted so you can buy as much as you want in the comfort of the above.
what more could you want!!?
obviously 1000 new customers per week means we're cracking that 100m revenue much faster than expected. my forecast break even opex cost is around 110-120m which means breakeven is this side of Christmas 2025. from that, the ARR compounds, meaning we're looking at net 20-30m for a half year and +50m for the full year July 2026 or more.
the valuation on that profit figure is upward 2.5B so expect +$1 by January 2026 if we're reading 900-1000 new customers per week in this July 2025 update. 60c will be the next target after 31st July.
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