BOT 16.9% 38.0¢ botanix pharmaceuticals ltd

Bot Chart, page-8239

  1. 1,890 Posts.
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    Yes grainofsand , qbrexa only does 25m p.a in the same market.

    qbrexa sold for 160m in a transaction a few years ago with 140m of that sale price tied to sales milestones/royalties.

    SB may well be safer and more efficaous but enough better to confidently sell 4,5,6x more volume than qbrexa ???

    i believe SB can do more than qbrexa given its a better product , but how much more ???

    5x6x is probably too optimistic.

    somehwere in the middle is most realistic , like 50 to 100m USD.

    FAnotTA or whoever it was pounding the glass against those wanting a t/o, needs to pull your head in.

    if BOT go it alone we have market risk, execution risk, business risk, capital risk , macro risk , the product might suck and do qbrexa like sales or a better alt. Might get approved. Leave me out of all those risks if its my choice.

    let Howie and Vinnie sell the dream to BP and lets get a good sale amount upfront .

    dont forget , fully diluted SOI sits at 1.6bn BOT shares.

    50c is 800m AUD and if the sale was at the price i think all SH should be absolutely happy as larry and head to the bank for collection.

    that price is possible since Vinnie and Howie have the CDB assets to dangle, which, if people have forgotten , is a bigger market than SB.

    they were meant to start a 12 month trial in dialysis patients and if shown safe and efficous will deliver revenue within 2 years.

    im sure that CDB has a place in the future at solving some of these dermatology problems and any BP certainly get a good leg up on testing out that hypothesis if buyin' BOT.

    my thoughts are 15 to 16c prior to FDA
    25 to 30c on FDA
    And within 6 months of FDA , a sale to BP for 35 to 50c

    let's see how I go!
 
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