Hey all, Unfortunately I missed the webinar today, but in any...

Hey all,

Unfortunately I missed the webinar today, but in any case was able to extrapolate some of the numbers I see people posting from the webinar and released by the company to take a guess at what year 1 sales might be at.

Assumptions - as mentioned by company, I've assumed 2000 new patients per month, growing by 5% per month as online sales push take effect ( Probably a big underestimate here )
Assuming 100% renew ( So far correct, but will turn out to be too optimistic. Unknown what the settled rate will be )
I do think the underestimate in new patient growth, will more than cover the overestimate of reduction in renewals.... time will tell.


Here is my graph based on Feb sales+ , for estimated monthly and cumulate first 12 months. Second 12 months will continue from where the first left off ( potentially hundreds of millions of sales )



NOTE....... I only used 5% new patient growth PER MONTH

I calculated the actual monthly growth over a rolling 4 week period, starting every week I had data for :
226%
170%
136%
136%
147%

These numbers are very high as you would expect for product launch. If we use even 35% monthly growth as the above 2 periods.
Over double the sales:




Note...... that is 275 million USD sales ~ 431 Million AUD............. Company value..... 687 mill AUD

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
and shorts increased position?