bottom at 18c

I have reviewed the key price/volume levels and the result of recent higher volume selling and I am increasingly confident that 18 is going to be the bottom.

You can see the high volume band around 20c on the chart that marked the high volume position build at the base of the last run. This is slightly incorrectly placed on the attached chart because the actual average price on the day was just below 19c.

Then on each of the three highest volume days (marked 1,2,3) over the last 8 **trading** days which did 534k, 477k and 692k respectively the share price closed above the lows which means there is no longer an incentive to sell unless a holder absolutely has to get out.

This, combined with the high volume base at just under 19c over the last 2 months and the high volume turnover of 90% of the issue traded at ~24.6c over the last 6 months makes me think this is unlikely to trade in any significant volumes below 18.5c unless a very larger holder like JPM 7m or GSCO 6.8m decides to sell.

As for the free float, who really knows what it is and what the state of the top20 is. (Boy would I like to have a gander at the top20 right now!) But of the top20 holders I think we can assume the following shares are off the market:

The Substantial holders due lack of notices: Sno 18.8m + Mqg 23.6m + Glenc 21.8m. (Total ~64.2m )

Director's shares totalling ~8.3m

And I know of another ~5.5m shares that haven't been sold over the decline which brings the total to ~78m shares.

Assuming ALL other top20 (unlikely) and non-top20 shares are in the 'free float' including the 7m JPM and 6.8m GSCO (unlikely), that would give us a float of 69m shares.

Now consider that 132m shares have traded over the last 6 months at 24.6 average, and since the high (including) ~33.6m shares have been dribbled onto the market in an apparent attempt to reset the price.

I find it hard to see any more significant selling unless someone is forced to exit a position at a loss (surely nobody here trades specs on margin?) or some astonishingly awful news comes along.

So to the share dribblers; I hope you hit your targets and managed to refill your positions because I think it is going to be increasingly hard to do so in coming days.

All just IMO.








, which probably means that most of the selling over the last