here is some info from the half years to dec 31 06 and 07.
in the half year to december 06,
1/ oil average $57/barrel 2/ operating expenses were $934.7 million 3/ fuel and oil contributed $262.3 million 4/ npat $124.3 million
so fuel made up 28% of the operating costs
in the half year to december 07
1/ oil averaged $75/barrel 2/ operating expenses were $1,035.8 million 3/ fuel and oil contributed $266.3 million 4/ npat $113.3 million
so fuel made up 25.7% of the operating costs....this is down from 28% even though oil averaged $75 compared to $57 in the corresponding period.
now lets look at what has been announced.
a/ a $50 million cost saving plan b/ fuel now makes up 35% of the operating costs
now lets assume the following in the june half 08.
1/ operating expenses $1,035.8 million (i will keep it the same as half year to dec 31 07) 2/ fuel and oil contributes 35% of the operating expenses = $362 million.
so vba have announced a $50 million saving plan but fuel costs for the half year to june 08 have risen $96.2 million.
nothing has really been done to address capacity accross the network and yields will likely continue to fall whilst fuel will continue to rise and a loss is likely.
i personally think you needed more done to justify holding.
cheers
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