True, the 1990's were similar in that the non-commercials were net negative on the COT, but the magnitude of the gross shorting is now 2 to 3 times higher. Also the back drop of those times were very different. The cold war had just ended and China was yet to emerge. The US was unopposed globally and that was probably the peak of the USD as the global currency. In the 90's gold really was a "barbaric relic". Central banks globally were net sellers of gold, with Gordon Brown the British PM signalling the bottom of the market when he sold 400 tonnes in 1999. Central banks are now net buyers of gold, China is an economic force, India is an economic force, Russia has risen from the dead, and the US has upset everyone else with the way it has used and abused it's currency to it's own end. In addition US public debt is 7 times what it was back then so I just don't believe gold will react in the same way as it did during those times. At the time the Euro central banks were selling gold they orchestrated the sales in order to avoid completely decimating the gold price.....With China and Russia now big buyers of gold, and the importance to the US that an obvious alternative to the USD does not emerge, I don't think it's a stretch to believe that the gold price is now manipulated from the opposite direction......For these reasons I don't think the traditional low inflation, rising interest rate factors will be the the major drivers of the gold price going forward, and therefore for me the short positions as indicated in the current COT reports take on a greater significance.
RSG Price at posting:
$1.02 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)