Bottom is “IN”

It’s clear to see that there were some momentum players in the last break out from $5.30 ish in October which were disappointed that the half yearly didn’t show growth over an above the well communicated forecast given. It’s the case that FND are inline with guidance (EBIT $30-35m)  but momentum players decided to sell and have been well and truly flushed out. The capitulation event is well and truly behind FND - is suspect it was from lots of mum and dad investors that could bear the large price drop and panicked out…


Good consolidation here over the past 3 weeks in the $4.80-5.30 zone has occurred, with diminishing volume in the past week. This indicates that the panic selling has stopped and infact today’s action suggests we have seen the bottom with marginal increasing in volume so far today.

This stocks growth years begin from 1st April 2025 (beginning of their financial year) and 2025 and 2026 years should have EBIT of circa $50-55m and $70-80m in those respective years (if the analyst reports are a guide - Ord Minnett and MST).


Time to secure your extra shares ready for the $20 a share IPO in India in a couple of years..
EBIT of $80m x multiple of say 15 =$1,200,000,000 market cap - divided by the fully diluted shares on issue of 58m = pride per share of circa $20.68.

That seem reasonable to float on 15 times EBIT.. especially for that growth trajectory - NB: some Indian comparables trade between 20-40 times - so there is plenty of upside on a $20 float price aswell - not a bad set up at all at these levels !



A break of $5.30 here and then $5.80 is the next resistance could see FND back on its upward march.

Good luck long term FND holders!