Bought more, page-2

By the way, the Thomson Consensus Estimates for BYL are:

…........ 2014 .... 2015 .... 2016 .... 2017
EPS ..... 8.8c ... 10.5c .... 11.0c ... 10.7c
DPS .... 3.0c ..... 4.0c ..... 4.9c ...... 4.8c

For BYL to increase EPS to 10.5c in FY2015 would require NPAT to increase by ((10.5 x 1.15) ÷ 8.8) -1 ≈ 37.2%, which is ambitious. I think this is Bell Potter's estimate, and its view of BYL's future has historically been too rosy. In my previous post I suggested EPS would be ($320M x 3.5%) ÷ 126.5M ≈ 8.854c. That is, I guesstimated Revenue would be $320M, and the NPAT margin would be 3.5%. The post-dilution share tally is 110M x 1.15 = 126.5M.

A dividend payout ratio of 33.9% would yield a DPS of 3c, which is what I expect. Had the shares not been diluted, EPS would have been ($320M x 3.5%) ÷ 110M ≈ 10.18c, and DPS would, I think, have been 3c (29.5% of EPS) or 3.5c (34.4% of EPS) to keep within managements stated payout ratio range of 25% t0 35%. BYL should tend to keep to that low payout range as long as it has lease commitments that substantially cover the $30M equipment it had to commit to pursuant to the $300M RIO contract.

Had an omnipotent and omniscient god being watching after my best interest, a win-win deal between BYL and NWH would have happened, and seen NWH with less idle equipment, and BYL investing less than $30M to handle the RIO contract.