you dont know if you;re smart until you see the result, i feel
in my experience most of the paid analysts etc are very poor at picking inflections - mainly because they rely on supply/demand which is almost never the cause of inflection points.
i also feel a 11m barrell build and little refined product drawdown smells of glencore and trafigura doing a bit of quarterly arbitrage
and the equities certainly dont appear to be behaving poorly as youd expect if the bots are setting up for a 30s move.
either way, we should know by january
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