Bought today, page-4

the optimists and pessimists are overeaching atm

the oil price fell thru trend last night on massive crude inventory build - +11_m barrells - but that was a catchup after the past 6 weeks had seen something like 3.5m barrell drawdown when somethign like 6m build had been expected


this is normally a big build part of the year as refineries close down for maintenance into december + as more us shalers come back online following recent +50 oil

so the next 2-4 weeks will likely be soggy going. but its highly likely youll see oil stocks start to bottom before oil inventory starts rising - market always anticipates.


for those worried about sto profit levels - a few weeks of mid low 40 spot are irrelevant - the company is valued more for its asset base than its profit making potential at these prices.

plus they are now hedged - which is obviously what they were trying to protect themselves against by announcing the hedge policy the other day

I think to get a low $2 value on sto you have to expect a return to sub $40 oil + a general market meltdown.

certainly possible - but i wouldnt say its probable

the overall market correction risk though - i think thats very real

commodity stocks trend to move with their spot price more than with overall market mechanics

but if both go same direction then they feed off each other