Bounce time imminent!, page-145

Mita,

GREAT DATA! - although it needs a key to unlock as regards the precise relationship between the figures and reported quarterly sales.

If I look at the retail dollars tab & project April sales for June (I don't know how they adjust weekly figures to derive monthly, so April is a good conservative proxy) we get sales of 25.3m for June and 81.5m for the quarter. This is confusing, as the Q1 sales were only 37.3m

So to model a bit, the "retail dollars" tab has Q1 sales of 82.1m, but reported sales of 37.3m by Lilly, a factor of 2.2 times. So if we apply that factor to projected Q2 sales, we get sales of 37.0M.

This would make annual US sales of USD146m which combined with projected intnl sales USD8 would bring total FY15 sales in at USD154m and approx AUD200.

Plenty of assumptions, but looking way more positive than the doom and gloom and assuming a 10% royalty rate would result in ACR being well placed in terms of earnings for the year and beyond.

Interested to hear other interpretations on the figures.

I'll paste my workings below FYI

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6
0	Date	AXIRON	month	Qtr	Actual reported
1	26/06/2015	6,069,258	25,305,590	81,524,381	37,023,053
2	19/06/2015	6,069,258
3	12/06/2015	6,069,258
4	05/06/2015	7,097,816
5	29/05/2015	6,242,570	31,941,759
6	22/05/2015	6,782,534
7	15/05/2015	6,313,123
8	08/05/2015	6,174,894
9	01/05/2015	6,428,638
10	24/04/2015	6,073,962	24,277,033
11	17/04/2015	5,980,561
12	10/04/2015	6,096,248
13	02/04/2015	6,126,263
14	27/03/2015	6,397,171	25,300,996	82,134,216	37,300,000	2.20
15	20/03/2015	6,128,988
16	13/03/2015	6,258,016
17	06/03/2015	6,516,823
18	27/02/2015	6,214,934	25,162,384
19	20/02/2015	6,142,433
20	13/02/2015	6,427,598
21	06/02/2015	6,377,420
22	30/01/2015	6,518,488	31,670,836
23	23/01/2015	6,285,280
24	16/01/2015	6,335,763
25	09/01/2015	6,122,468
26	02/01/2015	6,408,838