Swiv - AMX has had to endure the "perfect storm" in the last 18...

Swiv -

AMX has had to endure the "perfect storm" in the last 18 months, it really couldn't have conspired any worse against them imo and the current shareprice reflects this

They've had to deal with :

1. Regional flare ups in Mali and ivory coast
2. gold price receeding from recent highs
3. gold sector sentiment reaching GFC levels (or worse)
4. snail pace assay lead time and a resultant lack of news flow
5. less than straight forward met-work that the market doesn't understand
6. regional targets not delivering "eye popping" results the market wants or understands (but some see what is taking shape at batie = mineralisation basically everywhere they drill. This is rarer than people give credit for)
7. A lack of M&A activity in the region
8. Brokers turning bearish on gold sector
9. Funds forces into merciless redemption selling with little regard for value (black rocks and goodmans redemption selling accounts for the majority drop from $1.30 imo, but this is a point of conjecture. Blackrock started and the resultant market senitment took over from there)
10. Some bad decisions from management regarding exploration methods (shooting from the hip mainly due to lab-lag) and a corporate interest test that was poorly handled and ill-timed.
11. Focus on thankless resource drilling in 2012. Expensive and nothing new for the market to chew on.

Not a lot of positives there when you consider good news vs bad news in the last 18 months. Exploration stocks are largely driven by sentiment and when sentiment turns sour , its hard to keep any forward momentum when good news is too long between drinks. Even harder when making the transition from explorer to developer , you lose a lot of the "exploration stock junkies" that thrive on new results.

Having said all that.....

I think there is now a good chance that the worst is behind us , and I agree with CMBI group that this may be the year that AMX turns things around.

The "perfect storm" could be brewing for a massive recovery rally.

Here's what to look out for:

1. Rising POG. Long term perceptions about gold prices are very important. After a long period of consolidation in the POG, it usually drags gold stocks up at an "outperform" pace , gold stocks will actually start leading the metal higher. If the market starts to believe the POG has finished correcting and will resume the 12yrs uptrend , its game on for gold stocks, no question, as forward valuations will be set higher.

2. The AMX share register is tight and getting tighter. The fewer free float share in the market , the more control AMX bulls will have over the share price. And they will push when the right news drops imo. The share register has changes dramatically in the last 18months, and I'd say the majority of share movement has been from weak to strong hands.

3. Almost a year as of April, since the data room was opened to potential suitors. If the CA's expire after one year , its game on for a few bids imo, and might explain taurus's rush to secure 20% , before these CA's expire. Watch this space post april......

4. Exploration methods are back to the "good old days" where they can regularly test where they are drilling to stay on trend. No more shooting from the hip. This certainly plays to Kitto's strengths as a structural geologist PHD. But there's always an eliment of luck involved here , hopefully he gets lucky soon.

5. the region has stablised considerably . Although it never effected operations in Burkina, its good for the markets perception of risk in that area.