bouncing up or down, page-4

Long term

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/field041809.html

Alf Field
16 April 2009

And

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/field112408.html

Alf Field
25 November 2008

snip --->

As this will be the last of these Updates, I will reveal my previously unpublished "back of the envelope" calculations in 2003. They were as follows.

Major ONE up from $256 to approximately $750 (a Fibonacci 3 times the $255 low);
Major TWO down from $750 to $500 (a serious decline of 33%);
Major THREE up from $500 to $2,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);
Major FOUR down from $2,500 to $2,000 (another serious decline);
Major FIVE up from $2,000 to $6,000 (also a 3 fold increase, same as ONE)

A case can be made for an 8 fold increase in Major FIVE, which would continue the Fibonacci sequence 3, 5, 8. You can do the maths if you like, but the fact is you can pick your own number for the gain in Major FIVE. Three times the low of $2,000 was actually the conservative expectation, producing a bull market peak target of $6,000.

I would not have invested 40% of the family capital into gold, silver and the corresponding mining shares based solely on my bullish EWP expectations. The following is a quote extracted from "Elliott Wave and the Gold Price" written in 2003 and referenced above:

"I am not a gung-ho advocate of the EWP. I discovered not only its strengths but also its weaknesses. I prefer to have fundamentals, technicals and the EWP all in place (if possible) before committing myself to an investment."

snip ----->

For me GOLD is a HOLD regardless of AU$POG or US$POG
One is a piece of plastic the other a piece of paper
Short term I am to slow to trade it

Regards .....