bow arrow shell (petro)china

Below is a link to an article from the Australia regarding Arrow's LNG project for Gladstone. Yaq on the ESG thread also mentioned another article on page 35 of today's Australian regarding Shell/Arrow's plans.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/arrow-sets-lng-export-timeline-with-approval-slated-for-next-year/story-e6frg9ef-1226038112530

Given the history and cross directorships with the former Arrow board, given that BOW has substantial acreage adjacent to Arrow's producing fields, if BOW proves up its reserves targets & achieves commercial flow rates and assuming Arrow's 8mtpa LNG project receives environmental approval, what are the chances of BOW remaining independent?

For that matter, what are the chances of Arrow/Shell/Petrochina letting BOW committ its gas to another LNG project and not launching a takeover bid?

I'm obviously of the view that Arrow JV will swallow BOW. This may not necessarily be the best long-term outcome for BOW shareholders but looks more likely to me everyday especially if BOW can produce some good flow rates.

The ultimate LNG production target for the Arrow JV is 16mtpa.

If you have reasons why this is not as likely as I'm seeing it, please comment.

Thanks

This is just my opinion. Please do your own research.