For much of the past decade, your analysis would be spot on...

For much of the past decade, your analysis would be spot on because BLU has done nothing except issue press releases and sign MOUs with zero intention of following through.

However, this year they have been drilling and so should have some good news to announce. But, they've gone quiet. The last flow rate update from Sapphire was nearly 2 months ago at 0.12 TJ / day which is pretty unimpressive. The "resources upgrade" they announced at the end of July actually hid a reserves downgrade.

You can be pretty certain that if the testing programme had gone well, we'd have had almost daily announcements. Their absence is a strong indicator that it has not gone well.

As for the big export pipeline to Gladstone or southern markets, forget it. It requires 2P Reserves and firm customers. There are not sufficient 2P reserves in the basin. If there were, the customers would be queuing up. There is no conspiracy, just not enough 2P reserves.