bowland gas value per ajl share

RE: Recap & Shale Gas per AJL Share

Clearly, exceptionally positive on all fronts.

Not only is AJL now a going concern (I never thought I would see the day), but with such heavy investment from Kerogen (and the option of a directorship), I think we can also see the end to the inappropriate remuneration structures that have blighted this company in recent years. With new liquidity, a wealth of new expertise and internal oversight through Kerogen, and a rapidly developing asset and contract (Wheatstone etc.) pipeline, I can't help but feel ever so slightly optimistic.

That said and in view of recent announcements, I am still not sure why they are pushing on with the sale of the drilling services business, and whether the Monument investment ever works out is anybody’s guess...

Given the impending lifting of the trading halt, just some quick calculations on the value of Bowland Shale Gas in Place (GIP) per AJL share.

- AJL Total Shares Issued (post Recapitalisation) = 110m

- 200tcf GIP = 200bn MMBTU (assuming average quality gas)
- AJL Share of PEDL:165 = 25% (Direct Stake) + 41%*75% (Cuadrilla Indirect Stake) = 56%
- AJL Share of Gas = 56% * 200bn MMBTU = 112bn MMBTU
- Assume Only 1% GIP Recovery = approx 1.12bn MMBTU
- Gas per AJL Share = 1.12bn/110m = 10.18 MMBTU/share
- Current NYMEX Price / MMBTU = US$3.70.
- Assuming Gas Price of US$3.00 per MMBTU, backing for each AJL Share at 1% GIP recovery = approx US$30.

...yes, that's $30 per share at 1% recovery....

Thoughts/Comments/Pointing Out My Mistakes?

BD.