Just been through the recently published BP Energy Outlook. They...

Just been through the recently published BP Energy Outlook. They have revised down their estimate of nuclear output (post Fukishima) which initially disappointed me, until I looked at the stats...summary below from www.bp.com if you want more.

Global percentage change 2010 to 2030 in Production - [data originally in million tonnes oil equivalent - mtoe]

mtoe

OIL...................15% to 4,512
GAS.................50% to 4,328
COAL...............12% to 4,164
NUCLEAR.........61% to 1,006
HYDRO.............47% to 1,137
BIOFUELS........217% to 118
RENEWABLE...442% to 860

TOTAL.............33% to 16,196

Bottom line is that there is still an expectation by the BP boffins that nuclear will grow very fast, especially compared to coal which is essentially the major competitor for large scale base-load power generation. Mined output of uranium is not currently sufficient for current (2010) needs so the U price will have to rise to give incentives to the explorers and the majors to go into production. IMO it's not really a question of 'if' the U price rises but much more one of 'when' it does. Recent JP Morgan study indicates the incentive price is at least $80/lb. That is roughly 60% above current pricing.