I'll give this one a crack:1. The relevant NSW Minister (the...

I'll give this one a crack:
1. The relevant NSW Minister (the Minister for Natural Resources) has not made her position "clear" by any definition. The quote source refers to another NSW Minister, presumably speaking on behalf of the actual Minister, referring to a statement which the Natural Resources Minister potentially made to him. Nonetheless the same Minister quoted, is quite clear that the NSW Government will not be providing ongoing commentary until the joint authority (i.e. the Commonwealth Minister) makes a decision.
2. Agree that a NSW Government Minister stated that the government is "considering new legislation". Nothing too controversial here, new legislation is constantly being considered. What the effect of this will be is questionable at best as anything further than 3 nautical miles from the coast falls under the jurisdiction of the Commonwealth.
3. Fair enough about the dilution, but the counter argument would be that the Federal government under Scomo was not promoting gas as the avenue to a low emissions future like the current Albanese government now is, nor was Scomo raising concerns about the Bass Strait emptying of gas either. Arguably the market cap is worth more though this time around as the proposition has a higher chance of succeeding - even though I still personally put the odds of approval at far less than the 50/50 being bandied about on this forum.
4. Volume comes and goes depending on sentiment, hype, perceived opportunity and everything else going on in the background. Past behaviour is not an infallible determinant as to future behaviour.
5. The policy you've cited is a legacy hangover from the former Liberal 2022 government and was not developed by the current NSW Labor government. It won't take much for this to change, especially as the next NSW election is in 2027.
6. Similar to point 4, charts look good as they have visual appeal which fundamentals lack, but they are ultimately a snapshot of the past and not inconclusive as to what might happen in the future. Traders seek to make hay on potential pattens, which academic studies nonetheless time and time again continue to debunk the effectiveness of, and although TA traders may affect some day-to-day movements of the share price, they are not a substitute for the underlying fundamental current driving upward trend in share price. Regardless of what any trading signals say, the price will go up if the permit is approved and down if it is not. Provided that the market sentiment the market is still hopeful prior to the approval being announced, the price is likely to continue to trend upwards in the meantime.

Best of luck in your HC retirement and I hope that everyone else is only putting in as much as they as prepared to lose if this all goes pear shaped!