BPH - everything you need to know and why it could re-rate 5 times in 2021

BPH currently holds a 22% interest in Advent Energy. Advent is an unlisted Australian company that owns 85% of the PEP11 title. PEP11 is described as "a potential multi-trillion cubic feet natural gas prospect". It is located off Newcastle NSW, highly strategic to both Sydney and the Hunter region where a gas fired power station is proposed. The Greater Sydney and Hunter regions are the largest gas market in Australia.

Following on from the new 52 week high and the volume traded on 25/1/21, a lot of questions are being asked about BPH and what SH can expect. Here is what happened in 2020 and what we expect in 2021:-

Jan 2020 - Application submitted to NOPTA to vary the PEP11 permit.

July 2020 - Completes successful capital raise to invest further in Advent plan to drill PEP11. BPH has $2M+ in cash as at Sep quarterly

Sep 2020 - NOPTA hands its recommendation to the Government's Joint Authority (John Barilaro, NSW and Keith Pitt, Federal = the "JA")

Sep 2020 - Federal Government budget announcements - "Gas Led Recovery", "5 Basin Funding", "Liddell Power Station to be replaced by Kurri Kurri gas fired plant", "CCS research funding"

Sep 2020 - John Barilaro takes Mental Health leave, JA decision delayed.

Oct 2020 - PEP11 debated in Parliament, JA decision delayed

Dec 2020 - Greens Motion to cancel PEP11 permit in Senate defeated.

Dec 2020 - BPH announces appointment of eminent Scientist Prof. Cook, a globally recognised expert in CCS, to work with Advent on implementing CCS at PEP11

Dec 2020 - NSW Government declares proposed Kurri Kurri gas fired power plant "critical infrastructure"

Dec 2020 - Advent Energy capital raise for drilling announced, BPH to sub-underwrite.

Jan 2021 - BPH announcement of Add Energy as Advent's Drilling Consultant, BPH moving to "drill ready" pending NOPTA approval.

Following is what we can expect in 2021 including 5 announcements that should positively impact the SP:-

Feb 2021 - PEP11 permit expires on 12/2/21. NOPTA approval is anticipated before expiry. The TA and FA suggest a re-rate to a SP between $0.38 and $0.80.

Feb 2021 - Advent Capital Raise closes - BPH is expected to substantially increase its percentage ownership of Advent Energy to over 30%. FA suggests a further SP re-rate.

1st QTR 2021 - National Gas Infrastructure Plan scheduled to be unveiled. Subject to NOPTA approval, Advent is widely anticipated to receive Federal funding to help unlock the Offshore Sydney Basin under the "5 Basin Funding" announced in the 2020 budget. FA suggests a further SP re-rate.

Apr 2021 - Deadline for Private Sector commitment to Kurri Kurri. If the Private sector doesn't commit, Government entities Snowy Hydro and Red Energy have been instructed to proceed with implementation. PEP11 represents the geographically logical and most economical supplier of gas feedstock to Kurri Kurri.

TBC 21 - Drill Appointment, FA suggests a further SP re-rate.

TBC 21 - NOPSEMA approval, FA suggests a further SP re-rate.

TBC 21 - The lead up to the drill will obviously see the SP reflect the potential of unlocking the PEP11.

There are some wildcard events that could also occur, Institutional investment once market caps hits $100M and possible Corporate investment.

Also expected in 2021 is FDA approval for investee Cortical's BARM product. BPH holds a stake in Cortical which has forecast potential revenue in the millions once approvals are received.

As always, please do your own research. The above information is predominantly sourced from public announcements. Any opinion is my own, it’s not advice.