BPH - Joint Authority decision due by 1st November 2023, page-61

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MrMysterious

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19/10/23

10:38

Post #: 70422748
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Originally posted by Scarpa ↑

If you look at gasfields generally, a lot of drilling happens before they find gas, and more importantly enter the gas field at the point that the structure has permeability, pressure and flow to allow the gas/condensate/oil to flow back to surface without significant cost. Clearly they believe gas is there but the point been around extracting the gas in commercial quantities and finding the 'sweet spot'.

In terms of the 5TcF forecast where exactly has the forecast come from? Was there a 3D survey? I know I have been lazy by doing limited research here but this stock tweaked an interest for me. Often such forecasts are a bit of guess - as they can be significantly higher or lower, noting ultimately what is commercially extracted ultimately is what they put in the P90 and P50 bucket.

Assuming there is 5TcF of gas and all of it can be extracted, which is not going to be the case btw, then that is equivalent to about 100 million tonnes of LNG - the domestic market overeast I suspect is too small for those types of quantities so export markets will be required, unless they envisage a return over a very long lifespan through domestic gas supply.

For those interested I posted on gas in another stock a while back - has some conversions on what the gas actually means half way done to local markets although it was WAS based -
Post #:
41853118
But the key is at 15mtpa equivalent LNG production you are looking at around 2500 TJ of gas per day, which in WA for example is two-and-a-half times the entire gas demand on the local market.

All IMO

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Great post Scarpa, I love reading your posts.
Yes there was a survey completed. They’ve drilled the permit once before back in 2010 and it was a duster. Comparing the two surveys you can clearly see they were off the mark in the first drill.
Would love for you to stay close and hear your thoughts overall.

BPH Price at posting: 2.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
10 Upvote

1 Great analysis

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