BPH - PEP11 = politics

Thursday was not a good day. The PM dropped his pants and excreted all over our project. Undisciplined. Inappropriate. Unfair.

But why?

Answer = Politics

We knew we were politically sensitive, but having endured Falinski's motion, and Whish-Wilson's vote, we felt, quite rightly, the Politics was done.

But, no.

The politics was not done.

Out of nowhere, enter the PM, Scott Morrison.

But why?

Simple conclusion - PEP11 will not be approved. When I heard the news, I sold. Why wouldn't you, the share price could only sink on this news. I have to admit, I missed a pip or two, I read @Flambeau post where he said "nah, he didn't talk about PEP11". I should have realised then and there that Flam was off selling his shares whilst blatantly lying on HC. He has since removed the incriminating post at his own request. A measure of the man. I wasn't fortunate enough to be listening live. It wasn't too long after that the truth was revealed. Scott had dropped a coily of monumental proportions on PEP11 and an implosion of the SP was inevitable. I was fortunate enough to buy back in on the dip before the TH, so I still hold.

But, having had the opportunity to give it thought, I have an alternative position to put to you. It's a position others also have suggested, but I want to go into a little more detail.

I remembered @Mitchccan thread on politics. I am not from NSW, so I wanted to look deeper into why the PM who champions the "Gas led recovery" would seemingly consign PEP11 to the scrap heap. I found the answer, VOTES. A double dose of VOTES.

Backdrop - with Craig Hughes moving to the crossbench, the LNP have a margin of one vote in the lower house.

To the next election, four of the top ten most marginal Federal NSW seats are in the PEP11 vicinity, viz:-

Wentworth (Lib) by 2,346 votes (1,174 changed votes to swing the seat)
Dobell (ALP) 3,035 votes (1,518 changed votes to swing the seat)
Hunter (ALP) 6,074 votes (3,038 changed votes to swing the seat)
Robertson (Lib) 8,139 votes (4,070 changed votes to swing the seat)

What better way for Sharma and Wicks to be supported than for the PM to back them in on their anti-PEP11 positions.
What better way to try and win Dobell than for the PM to neutralise the anti-PEP11 stance of Emma McBride.

But, like Falinski's crocodile tears, it's all just for show.

Keith Pitt, the National Party member for Hinkler in Queensland will be the patsy for approving PEP11. Not Scotty's fault, he is against PEP11.

A double dose - The PM goes into the Hunter and spruiks the new Kurri Kurri gas fired power station, the NGIP, CCS, along with all the other goodies he and Angus Taylor are handing out in the region and maybe, just maybe, they could steal Hunter away from the ALP as Fitzgibbon has no point of difference.

PEP11 = Politics.

What pleased me the most is that Keith Pitt responded today with "the decision will be made based on NOPTA guidelines" and "legislation". Calming.

Let's not forget what Angus Taylor said to Zali Steggall (Warringah +13,333 votes, former PM Abbott's old seat) in Parliament about PEP11, "projects that meet the standards will get approved".

So my conclusion is that Keith Pitt will follow protocol and approve PEP11 despite the posturing of Scott Morrison. I may ultimately be wrong, but that's my honest opinion.

JMO. DYOR. GLTAH.