Good comments Jake and Katok. I tend to believe that there is absolutely no love lost between ICN and BPT and that the only way that they will be in 855 together is by BPT taking ICN over in a hostile bid that will be fought tooth and nail by ICN's Board.(much to SH benefit).
As you very rightly put it Jake, very significant developments have occured in 218 since the disputed BPT/ICN "deal" and that has significantly changed the whole issue from both sides. BPT know what is very likely in 855 and ICN do likewise. Shale exploration in Australia, in line with the rest of the world, is now doable, pre "deal," it was still pie in the sky.
218 and 855 are now potentially multi BILLION dollar assets and we wait with great anticipation for BPT's results from fraccing Holdfast and Encounter.
That is why I think that ICN will be doing everything possible, right at this moment, to shore up its defences and getting its SH on side with some other "deal", probably re 855 and a very big player, to make any offer from BPT far less "attractive."
And they won't be waiting until after the result of the Court case. In fact, I would be most surprised if they don't have "conditional contingencies" in place before the hearing, regardless of the outcome of the hearing, just to minimize the risk of BPT gaining too much equity in ICN without making a full blown hostile takeover.
Needless to say, SH will not get any details pre-hearing, but, that won't stop management from trying to get a conditional "alternative" deal in place, just in case.
As for 616, Stanwell's GSA incorporates the Lydia Block. This area is only one-fourteenth of 626 (four of 30 blocks) and as I read it, I am confident that if Lydia doesn't "deliver", that ICN will certainly allow Stanwell to use as much of the rest of 626 as needed to fulfill their requirements. Stanwell have been "given" a 1% title interest in the whole of 626 in addition to their 50% of Lydia. No doubt that was because of the risk that Lydia did not deliver and to ensure that the GSA did not fail as a result.
I would be MOST surprised if they can't prove up 340PJ from the whole of 626.
Extremely interesting times and the Court hearing, only weeks away now, has put a pointy end on ICN's management's plans and am sure that it is all hands on deck and bums up until the hearing outcome is known.
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