If I lived in Tasmania, an afl state, and followed the game I reckon I would be pretty peeved with the hierarchy. If you ask me, they should have demanded that one of the poorer supported afl teams relocate there before setting up an afl team in Sydney. I would imagine the Tasmanians would follow any team - be it a new one or relocated.
If they want Sydney to work then I don't believe they can relocate a team there. I think it should start off fresh in Sydney, people don't want to follow another ex-Melbourne team. It worked the first time because it was the only team to follow but I don't think another hand-me-down will. My opinion only. It didn't work for Souths in the league on the central coast but it did for the Mariners (soccer) because it was a new team based there. I recall the AFL commission at the time back in the 80s thought it would take about 10 years to dominate Sydney. I still don't think they understand the Sydney sporting market. AFL is competing against a different culture.
League's biggest competitor in money terms is Union and the English Rugby League. Players can swap codes for big overseas bucks or stay in the same code and go to England. Then there is soccer (football) which is definitely getting bigger (most played sport in the juniors) and also AFL. Soccer is where the big money is but it is overseas. Speaking of soccer a lot of people follow the English Premier League because in the 70s/80s etc English soccer was shown here on every channel. So the fact that Aussies are making it in england is making the code more popular here.
In Sydney some people follow league only, union only or a combination. Many see the dollars of union as the big threat to league. More countries play it and more money in the game. But at club level interest in union is minimal or even non-existent. But at private school level eg Joeys, Kings etc crowds of 15,000 are commonplace every year. Super 12/14 is popular but only one team per city. League at club level is dominant by a country mile. League at international level is (to me) pretty much a waste of time. Most people will watch an international but don't really care if we win or lose. They care more about their club. In Melbourne there is afl first, afl second and soccer third. And then you have the Storm who are probably followed mostly by ex-pats plus a few converts. Sydney is a lot more complex and fragmented. Depends where you live in Sydney which is the dominant code played but not followed at club level. Get the drift.
Then you have the whole football media centric of both Melbourne/Sydney.
