I actually learned something from this post. so can you specify the real headwinds for appen? the headwinds i've seen you mention are
In order to create quality training data, Appen needs expertise in these areas. If a new area emerges, they need to adapt.
they are the market leader, if they can't adapt their competitors can't either.
Once they understand the work that is required, I'm sure they will figure out a cheaper way of annotating data.
the market is pricing in 0 revenue from china, this doesn't match you $8-9 target price. and im sure with china's track record their annotation will have the same accuracy as appen.
regulatory landscape
pretty sure this is just bluff from the government. just like their anti trust crap. they won't do anything.
You fail to mention the real potential damage to appen, i.e. competitors and unsupervised learning taking over, i've been searching your walls of text all over for this and can't find them. You keep saying appen's business model is unreliable. Macquarie claims a lot more competition which indicates this is a very attractive industry. The business model is unreliable if data annotation demand doesn't grow or drops, but for that to happen human must be replaced by AI themselves, you never mention this.
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