The market sentiment is very bearish at present.One measure I...

The market sentiment is very bearish at present.

One measure I use to gauge the market estimate / sentiment is the average of the of estimate of the Analysts forecasts.

Of the 10 Analysts, the average is $603.7m AUS for the year ending December 31, 2021. This represents an immaterial growth of 0.7% on the 2020 results.

What we know

At the end of April 2021 (4 months), the revenue plus orders in hand was is $340M AUD.

At the end of Feb 2021, the revenue plus orders in hand was is $240M AUD.

Compared to:

At the end of May 2020 (5 months), the revenue plus orders in hand was is $340M AUD.

At the end of Feb 2021, the revenue plus orders in hand was is $210M AUD.

So, we know that we approximately 10% ahead in AUD revenue plus orders in hand.

Plus, we know that Appen growth revenue plus orders in hand by $100M AUD over March and April.

Plus, we know that key projects are expected to return in the coming months.

Plus, we know that the AI market is growing at 25%.

Given this information, I’m estimating that revenue will be circa $650m AUD for 2021. Comparing this to Analysts of $603.7m, I’m feeling bullish.

Hopefully tomorrow, they provide an update on revenue plus orders in hand. I’m estimating $390M AUD revenue plus orders or circa $300 USD for May.