breach of debt covenants - overdone, page-10

My figures below are likely to be partly or entirely incorrect. So go do your own research and modelling or go get your own advice or both. This here is not ADVICE. Views here are my own and partly based on others NPAT predictions.

DML - today very roughly:
Market Cap $272,719,440
Assets book $494,029,000
Loan Debt $188,000,000
Loan Debt to Equity market ~68.94%
Loan Debt to Equity book ~38.05%
Shares 486,999,000
SP $0.56

Cash
Cash on hand $48,386,000
Trade creditors $36,629,000
Net cash $11,757,000

Capital Commitments Required 2013
Boseto operation capital commitment $5,000,000
Mobile mining fleet acquisition $4,600,000
Coal fire power station $800,000
Zeta underground $600,000
Diesel power station $400,000
Total $11,400,000


Assume Cash burn of $14,000,000 until say 30 June 2013
So excluding residual net cash as above baed on $14,000,000 DML needs around $25,400,000 (plus probably a bit more)
But neverthelss assume draw down of $25,400,000 on existing facility/new debt/bonds whatever
Assume annual interest @ 6.5% on $25,400,000 = $1,651,000 PA

2 Forecasts on NPAT
FY13 FY14
Forecast 1 $134,200,000 $205,500,000
Forecast 2 $117,000,000 $209,000,000
Average $125,600,000 $207,250,000

Reduce average of NPAT forecasts by 50%
FY13 NPAT = $62,800,000
FY14 NPAT = $103,625,000

Less annual interest as above
FY13 NPAT = $61,149,000
FY14 NPAT = $101,974,000

FY13 = EPS $0.13
FY14 = EPS $0.21

FY 13 Model says SP @ PE 8 = $1.00
FY 13 Model says SP @ PE 10 = $1.26

FY14 Model says SP @ PE 8 = $1.68
FY14 Model says SP @ PE 10 = $2.09

Current PE assuming projected EPS of 13 cents = 4.46

So go suck on that but DO NOT rely on anything I might have said!