I notice there was MASSIVE value traded between last Friday and this Tuesday - suggests to me someone is looking to take a pretty large position ahead of any expected announcement on Fed Permits. There is no reason to think why we cannot have another rally similar to the time when news flow was getting busy and the Doctor put POK (TRH then) on his buy list and this shot up to the $1.40's... I know traders were expecting miracles from the drilling and the fed approvals then but we are much closer now..
Correct me if I am wrong but i think the expected deadline for the Bureau of Land Management's (BLM) announcement on granting fed permits is mid April (the 13th). The MOU was signed back in October of 2011 and gives the BLM 6 months to publish a decision assuming they have all the information and boxes ticked off on POK's submission. I am counting down the days!! Would assume here that Ben would have done most of the work and follow up on this and given the feedback i have heard on him, expect him to get the job done..
We all know that the next 2 months will provide be a binary outcome for the share price – either we get the approvals or they are denied (or delayed).. Not sure what you guys think but if the approvals come through, I think we need to put on seat belts as daily 15% rises will be a norm. I may be getting a little ahead of myself but I am keen to know if they will come to mkt straight after this with a lower JORC resource estimate or wait to do some drilling on fed lands and then announce a mega 500MT+ resource est. their exploration target is 3 to 5 billion but we must be dreaming if we think they will declare that anytime soon.. that may be part of the exploration program if they get to production…
ELM is the probably the Aussie listed yardstick for potash explorers with a total JORC resource of about 800MT @ 30% KCL. They trade at a market cap of ~ 260 million AUD but we are sitting at a meager 50 million mkt cap for POK. The re-rating potential is very large that its scary to think about the upside simply through the exploration/development stage if they can continually bank grades of about 25% KCL+ through further exploration on fed lands. The market’s perception of management is much higher with ELM but if POK can bank the permits we would have come a long way to narrow it. The estimated capex for ELM is ~1.7 bill so not too far off POK. But what POK has that ELM doesn’t is much less sovereign risk….
23 days to go….
POK Price at posting:
67.0¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
