I am here scratching my head too. Few observations: 1) The timing. Sp started to fall a week ago, accelerating in the last two days just before AGM: someone keen to send a "clear" message to the board? - 2) the trading pattern: there was/is surely someone keen to push the sp down as much as he can. I saw a lot of sellers in line with no more than 500 shares and a more than 1,000,000 sell order just at the end (dissappeared quickly after the bell). It could also be someone big exiting and, because the demand is not strong at the moment (oil down), it is then quite easy to get down as much as 12% for a small-mid stock like HZN - indeed, trading volume has not been that "big" in the last 3/4 days. OR It could also be "someone" frustrating the stock for a takeover approach...
Technical reasons:
1) News that we do not know (e.g. Stanley on hold?)... well, that would be ILLEGAL - so I hope, it is not the case...
2) Oil down - yes but, as we discussed before, HZN has been playing well here selling half of its oil yearly production (800,000) at about $96 a barrel ....plus as far as I know, Beibu production costs are around $50 barrel - so there is still a fair margin of profit - dunno Maari, but it should be less just looking at the previous quarter figures...
3) Oil production declining: from the last quarter report - not really! If not for the typhoon stop, Beibu would have produced not much less than the previous quarter (the profit margin INCREASED) - Maari production INCREASED even if any new production well came online (1/2 new wells should start producing this quarter...)
4) Balance sheet - if I remember correctly, the last quarter registered a "reasonable" $10m loss which included drilling at Stanley and (successful) exploration drilling at Beibu...
5) Talisman: this could be a factor in the falling sp. The Canadians (operator at Stanley) are not doing that well - they are selling down assets here and there... they are looking for cash... this is surely not a good news for HZN, but they declared last month that they will focus on the south east Asia (where energy demand is growing..) and we all know how long it took to take the Stanley PDL...it would not make sense to give up now!
6) 200m debt: a debt is never a good thing but, considering the HZN assets and pending payments (still 130m from Osaka coming), it is not much of a worry... not yet, at least...
7) despite falling oil and gas prices, HZN assets are in the right spot of the world and largely untouched. PNG is still attracting investments (see KPL) and exploration drilling activities are booming (see OSH, STO, Total, Heritage, etc...) .
If you have a look at today's KPL presentation, they value their 15% in PL21 (Ketu-Elevala-Tingu) between $0.54 and $1.34 per share... I am no good in mathematics, but HZN owns 27% of PL21, so I am sure we can at least say that today's HZN sp ($0.22) represents ONLY the market value of its PL21....I mean, without Beibu, Maari, Stanley, etc.... JUST SAYING...so, at this price, I am sure that some CEOs are counting the money left in banks for making a call at the HZN table... DYOR..
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