EGR 4.76% 10.0¢ ecograf limited

Breakaway Research Report, page-20

  1. 13,867 Posts.
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    I think it was back in July that I said this was my preferred graphite play but didn't want to buy on that run as it looked like there was too much hot money chasing it and I missed my entry. I wanted to buy around 26c and that was the low a few weeks ago but I wasn't confident enough that the hot money had finished selling yet at that time (pity!).
    Today I finally have bought some. Nice steady gradual rise since the low a few weeks ago suggests the hot money might be mostly out now (hope so). Still plenty of upside from here with mc at $43mill and scoping study on indicated resources showing an NPV of $213mill. Capex is not too high or demanding at $56mill. Even a doubling of shares on issue to fund the majority of the capex would see a mc at around $86mill which will still be well below the NPV. In fact if we see that doubling of shares to fund most of the capex, then the NPV will rise towards around $250mill because NPV is calculated net of capex (will be some amount less than $250mill though depending on working capital needs to production). So whether cr or debt funded there will be strong upside from the current price to NPV (up to three times the current sp on a doubling of shares or more than three times if mostly debt). No doubt there will be upside to NPV on any significant increase to indicated resources and/or annual production rates.
    I like this one for its flake size distribution. I won't buy any graphite stocks without knowing flake size distribution. Only a relatively small investment for me for now in case a better opportunity arises but the slow steady rise of the last few weeks looks like accumulation ahead of a possible sharper rally so I wanted in just in case my hunch on that is correct. Might be more of a trading stock for me but looks like a good investment regardless.
    Last edited by chuk: 03/09/14
 
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