GPT 2.74% $4.26 gpt group

I think in the short term we will see an approach to their...

  1. 631 Posts.
    I think in the short term we will see an approach to their recently reported NTA of 0.71. I cannot think of any reason as to why this will not occur.

    In the longer term, I believe that the share price will exceed NTA somewhat, based on operational earnings. This years profit is on track to be about $365m - I believe it will grow closer to $400m next year. I must admit that I am somewhat perplexed to see various management overhead costs grow by 16m in the half year period - or 30m for the full year - that's unconscionable given their performance - I might write a note to Mr. O'Brien and ask him to explain what he has done so well that deserves $32m of our money to be given up so easily.

    But I digress.
    So working off $400m as an operational earnings sum, growing at approximatly 5% per year, with a reasonable war-chest of funds at its disposal should opportunities present.

    Any business safely returning $400m year on year, using bank interest rates as a guideline, should be valued at about $10bn. That's how sizeable a bank deposit you would need to make $400m in interest returns from the bank.
    Now factor in growth, from a) rental and b) development pipeline and c) acquisition opportunities - should only add to the valuation.

    I believe that the first hurdle is earnings stability. We now need to see $400m achieved again in the next half with no surprises. That will unlock the path to premiums being paid on top of NTA.

    Over time though, I have no doubt that GPT will reach the $10bn mark - on current security levels that would be around the $1 mark. I'd suggest 2 more results would get us there.

    Besides the passage of time, other events include takeover activities as well as global financial events and recoveries. Perhaps you can predict these better than I and give me an answer about when the $1 target might be realised?
 
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$4.26
Change
-0.120(2.74%)
Mkt cap ! $8.160B
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$4.33 $4.37 $4.22 $40.48M 9.451M

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3 6696 $4.23
 

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Price($) Vol. No.
$4.26 40684 3
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