Great analysis. It does sound crazy 25%, but it's possibility if SP drops below certain levels. The market is irrational sometimes. I have been following FMG for over 10 years. I recall SP going up to $12 and they have not sold 1 kg of ore yet. All they had is a story to sell at the time. Later the first sales started ramping up and the SP dropped to $6
My best guess that there are 3 factors why the SP is on the way down.
1. Energy stocks are a sure bet at the moment with the momentum in Oil, Gas and Coal Prices, so that's where a lot money go( I personally hold WPL and I believe we are up 28% for a month)
2. Market is being manipulated by the institutional investors creating a sell down panic and pushing nervous retailers to sell their holdings.
3 short sellers using the opportunities created by 1 and 2.
All will be water down the bridge if the production reports this quarter and the next one are between 40 and 50 each. The dividend will follow and SP will follow the dividend and sales results.
FMG will also put the spin on the hydergine story. They know how to do it.
Breaking: CHINA CUTTING OUTPUT, page-33
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Last
$19.55 |
Change
0.050(0.26%) |
Mkt cap ! $60.19B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $19.98 | $20.30 | $19.51 | $184.3M | 9.305M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2568 | $19.51 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $19.56 | 44282 | 3 |
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| Last trade - 16.10pm 08/11/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| FMG (ASX) Chart |