I would like preface this with a note that my statement below is pure speculation. I have no inside information and this is only my opinion.
I expect them to expand into Canada. This provide an easier launch into the USA market and is a culturally and legislatively similar country to Australia. I am, though, uncertain of their credit laws and if they would be, largely, unregulated like they are in ANZ. I think expanding into USA would be a mistake as they couldn't possibly fund the transactions from a national retailer without either a massive capital raising or substantially reduced margins. UK - may be good, I'm uncertain about competition from Klarna et al.
My current calculated NPV for the company is $965m. I, of course, have made some aggressive growth assumptions so there is alot of execution risk in my calculations.
If they acheive the targets in my assumptions, then the NPV in 12 months is $1.3b.
As such I don't see the company as being drastically over-valued and they have done alot better than I expected.
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