Furniture on 30/04/13 BLY was @ 98.5¢ and I made the following...

Furniture on 30/04/13 BLY was @ 98.5¢ and I made the following two posts.

"Read DTQ 18th announcement written D J Fairfull current Non-executive Director, and also Non-executive Director of, Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Ltd - SOL. Given his bleak comments about the previous forecasting for DTQ, all drilling service companies should be looked at carefully before investing. I don't see any near future positives for BLY as they try to compete with the stated environment"

"The problem I have with BLY is the lag time within the industry. In a BLY report from the previous year (noticed they left it out this year) they graphed capital raised on the for mining/exploration stocks on the TSX and ASX, showing the fall from the high 2H/11. Credit Susie comes out and says the industry is now down from that high by 70%. Mining companies are all putting their houses in order, drilling “near mine” is on an “only if necessary basis” and exploration is at a snail’s pace. I expect the next set of numbers to show more clearly how tough things are out there. If people believe that BLY can’t go as low post GFC levels, I think they will. If we don’t see a recovery within the mining sector, BLY will have issues with their lending covenants. Increased pressure from Chinese manufacturing of drilling consumables are flooding the market, contractors have more choice than ever. With the amount of rigs parked up in yards across the country, obviously contractors aren’t buying new ones. The size and cost structure makes BLY less competitive when miners are contracting the cheapest to get the job done (perceived safety systems, productivity and name all taking a back seat). Research other listed drilling service providers, and all is the same. If I was a small holder in this stock, I’d seriously look at a stop loss now. Don’t get caught expecting things will be better with the next set of data to come out mid-year, because it won’t be.

The world turns and things will recover and I’m always the optimist, just not at this stage in BLY."

As you know, my post only seemed negative if your belief was that BLY was going to go up. I'm stoked for people that have recently jumped on. As you know, even when we were SHORT and it was falling, we were still partial to jumping on to bounce in the other direction (some we got right, others we didn't).

Our view from down here, is that personally BLY has too high a risk profile for us to worry about jumping on this change in sentiment. As the industry isn't changing, this "Breakout" will eventually peter out.

GLTA (Good Luck To All)