Thanks @MrOctane for your feedback.
I don't believe for a second that GOLD will fall below $US1,244 (worst case scenario) in the next 6 weeks. I probably have no less than 20 reasons why it won't and for the life of me I cannot come up with one reason why it will go down, nevertheless, I watch for any evidence to counter my belief. For me it is a weighing of the evidence.
With reference to the chart, here are a few reasons I see this going higher and higher for the coming months.
1) I'm expecting a (v) wave move to the next major correction. We are in wave 5 circle of wave iii of wave (iii) of that (v) wave move. Wave 3 or (iii) on the chart is the most impulsive move (ie. prices move quickly). Bottom line for those not familiar with Elliot Wave analysis is, we have broken the top of the trend channel (shaded blue) and that is has not happened before (in this trend up). Typically this happens around the mid way point in the trend.
2) If Gold falls back to what I expect as US1258.6 (if gold pushes on to 1297), I will not fear, in fact I welcome it, as long as it stays above 1244.
3) Thanks @MrOctane for mentioning the trend line. It's the single dark blue line on the chart which links the lows of Jan 2016 and Jan 2017. I was very pleased when it appeared because my predicted wave iv retracement bottoms near the trend line. We have broken it now and will come back to it as support later.
Anyway the big points are, we are in an uptrend, in the next 6 or 8 weeks the price of gold will be above the blue trend channel around 50% of the time.
Oh, the final teaser is we will reach $US1,320 before the end of the March quarter. Yeah I know the chart says otherwise, but I'm being conservative and the time periods in the future assume trading on every day, so it gets a bit inaccurate.
