Not murky at all. You have to read between the lines somewhat....

Not murky at all. You have to read between the lines somewhat. Cash increased from $1.3m to $1.6m. Gold inventories from $3.9m to $13m. Now the bad thing about gold inventories is that we do not know what is included. Maybe bullion at the refinery, maybe gold in circuit which you cannot sell. So that figure is very dubious and I would be hesitant to call the $3.9m gold inventories cash. But when you have a $9.1m increase within a quarter you know that difference is gold that is sellable and definitely not in circuit (they also stated they had 5.5k or something like that ounces at the refinery). So the cashflow is for real. Investec debt is no mystery either, was paid after the quarter. Trade debt was A$28.5 end of June. Could be they have paid down small amount, but I doubt it. No chance the debt increased because they had enough cash and there was no reason, patience of trade creditors is limited too. So 99% chance the trade debt stayed at A$28.5m Mind you there might be a $8-10m figure of normal trade debt, so it is not as bad as it seems. Only $20m excessive and in need to be paid down. Overall debt in need of paying down is that A$20m plus the A$11m of remaining Investec debt.

Well, with $9.4m in cashflow last quarter even with less than perfect production and hedge losses (gone after the September quarter as remaining hedges are in the money) that should be possible. Unfortunately due to the Smarts 3 loss for the remaining quarter there will be 3000 ounces of higher grade ore missing. Will be replaced with Smarts 4 ore of somewhat lower grade and Smarts 3 ore already sitting on the ROM pads, so not that bad. But I still think 1000-1500 ounces less production.

And that is my guesstimate for the current quarter. A$2.5m less in cashflow due to 1.5k ounces less production. Then A$1.5m less cashflow because of exploration spending. And A$0.5m more cashflow because of better hedging position. Means A$3.5m less cashflow and so A$5.5-A$6m in cashflow for the December quarter. Add in the US$4.2m Investec debt repayment or A$5.9m the quarter will be cashflow neutral after all expenses except for trade credit reduction. The cash position including gold inventories of A$14.6m should have been decreased to A$10.4m. Out of that figure there are still A$3.9m of dubious gold inventories, so A$6.5m left. End if all that comes to pass and Troy sells all bullion they will have A$6-7m in hard cash after the December quarter and after the US$4.2m Investec payment. If they go down to A$1-2m in required cash position for operations they could in theory pay down A$5m or 25% of excessive trade creditor debt.

At the beginning of CY2019 that would leave Troy with A$6.5m in Investec debt and A$15m in excessive trade debt and quarterly cashflows of A$8m available for debt reductions (still assuming A$1.5m quarterly exploration). So mid 3rd quarter of CY2019 the debt problem including trade debt could be solved.