Originally posted by Samboy69
Looks like its about to explode again.
Offerees onscreen very light
13.0 higher open yet again.
The volume buyer is there but the volume selling has depleted.
I think the seller was the remaining RIM/Eduardo stakes.
The capper/seller looks to be done and dusted.
Well over 13c Investec may ex their options for another A$4M cash to TRYs balance sheet.
More good news from drilling will be incoming.
More high grade & Tallman is an instant high grade orte feed that can double the production numbers on the same mill throughput.
$55M pa cashflows is outstanding for a $44M MCap.
Should be way way higher share price with no equity dilution for years
TRY will FLY AGAIN!
The Investec options are not transferable and are running until late 2019 before lapsing. Investec is likely to wait but will use the options even with a share price below 13 cents as they could sell a larger stake at a premium to the market price. I think a potential buyer could make a deal with Investec and then make a move on Troy before Investec exercises the options and sells the shares to the buyer at the predetermined price. And that is the main risk Troy is facing now.
If someone makes an offer at 20 cents, how many day traders or disgruntled shareholders are ready to give up their shares? 20 cents would include just current operations and assuming maybe 20k ounces could be extracted from Ohio Creek from near surface. Very low risk for a buyer at that price and he would get multiple excellent targets for free. Kaburi Hills, just kilometers from South Americas formerly largest mine.
Last year shareholders voted against the additional 50m shares placement facility. I voted for it. According to the cynical logic, when Troy was ready to do a 25% capital raise, why did they not make a 15% one while they were allowed to do? Management proved they are responsible and avoided it. Yet it was very close. I would have liked them to have additional placement capability to avoid disaster if it had struck. No we have a very similar proposal for the AGM. And while the chance of disaster is now much lower than last year I think it makes even more sense to have that flexibility. Because now you have exploration. Good exploration news is good. Bad exploration news is good. But no exploration news is very bad. E.g. Troy encountered mineralization from 2m down. But is it continuous down to 100m? We don't know. We will know once they drill the next hole as proposed. That hole will be 140m deep and so it will cost something like A$20k. The results could indicate that we have 80m x 2m x 100m x 2.8t/cbm x 10g/t / 31 g/oz = 14.45k ounces = A$24.9m
Any time frame where you have no news on exploration while you have open questions like that makes it very attractive for a buyer to snatch up Troy and take over drilling. Troy cannot afford to go slow on drilling. After they strike good results they need to have funds to continue as soon as possible. And if someone tries to snatch up our shares on the cheap, Troy with a 15% + 10% placement facility will be able to get a strategic investor onboard holding 20% after a possible deal. For a way higher price than now and near a possible takeover price. Better to let go of 20% at a takeover price than to be forced to sell 100% at the takeover price which will be - make no mistake - much lower than true value. E.g. the Normandy takeover in 2000/2001 could not be avoided, but having Franco-Nevada onboard meant a much higher price for us shareholders than the initial Anglogold offer.
So you may want to change your mind. I definitely will vote for the extra placement facility. No near-term plans for a deal and 95% chance there will be no deal during next year, but good to have the flexibility to fend off any low-ball offers.
Your opinion may differ, if so I suggest to not vote against the facility but go to the AGM and ask questions before making up your mind. Or call them if you are not able to attend.
