BREAKOUT... NEXT STOP $13, page-113

Would be great to see AGL perform well tomorrow, but it would be pretty much unprecedented (since 2015) for there to be a bump up on the day, H1 has often been kinder to shareholders (see below).

Some mitigating factors that may see a change:

• New approach to the release of market sensitive information (no investor day this year, which helped turbo charge the share price last year, before it fizzled prior to earnings), May 7 announcement created some excitement
• General recent bearish trend (with trend reversal in the past week or so)
• Dividend payout ratio (50%, with more retained within the business) where the company is investing in the business
• As per AFR: New information on the development pipeline (some wins with Gippsland skies etc and a change in a more cost effective approach by pivoting to pumped hydo conversions, generator usage rates (which was very strong in H2, as per opennem) and how it fared during the wind drought (very well based on re-bid data)
• There is something to be said that longer-term concerns of renewables killing the big generators has not materialised, but has created extreme volatilty and made things more profitable for the traditional generators (along with making it uneconomic for renewables developers)
• Maybe something about data centre partnerships?