breakout , page-46

Totally agree Nergee...

Lots to be appreciative about after ECT's near death experience. I was hoping for 2.5c by Apr 27...so a few days later already 3.3 and poised to break up...nice indeed.

Seems Coldry will be 1st to market (Rudy will have a bit/AEC dream unlikely/Exergen who knows). Say the initial module is producing early 2014 and the modules to make up the initial 2mtpa follow pronto. What are the options for local use/export?

The World Coal Mag $31 opex (or less if the $18 lignite cost needs to be wiggled down) figure is a nice affirmation of the July 2011 ann Page 11

http://www.ectltd.com.au/wp-content/uploads/110720-ASX-Coldry-Project-Update-FINAL.pdf

So Coldrys opex has not blown out over the last year as they have bigtime in the rest of the mining industry. $31 then and $31 now. No doubt Tincom etc are VERY encouraged by that! One of the huge LT LV coal selling points is the massive reserves close to the coast in a VERY low sov risk nation...hence LT the BCE $ can be relatively stable due the underlying lignite throw away cost...nice

Being 1st to market from LY - what about EXISTING rail capacity for export?

Page 9

There is ~4mtpa spare capacity there NOW. Being 1st mover - Coldry would have opportunity to have the lions share/if not all of that IF needed.

What about local use?

Page 10

So ALL existing LV generators can reduce emissions by ~8% by burning a 20% Coldry blend with minimal plant modifications.

Massive statement that even LT holders take for granted.

8% Co2 reduction in the bag - surely that would please all the various Govt/Green/Industry/Union/Employer groups...?

Isnt the Govt's target just 5% by 2020? Isnt the whole idea of the July 1 carbon price aimed almost solely at the LV lignite burners? So simply by using Coldry the 5% is well and truly in the bag...interesting and irresistible by TOO many parties?

Do the figures on how many mtpa Coldry is needed locally if even just LY A/B and Yallourn burn 20%...mine to mouth economics. Presently the Valley burns ~70 mtpa lignite. I get the feeling they are going to want wayyyy more than the initial 2mtpa that is proposed...lol

In the past the above was a theory - but now with the DreamTeam/Monash/KCoal/DFT/modules/Pilbara Govt backing etc - it all fits very very sweetly imo.

So I dont see the export/rail concerns as paramount at all to ECT's prosperity. I notice the 25 post 6 hour dummy spit yesterday by the dizzy one was mostly about him wanting an immediate answer from me re FOB details. It wasnt/isnt an issue to me hence I didnt reply...I could see the bait - but watched the afternoons posting with interest!

Sure the obvious LT picture is HUGELY export focussed and the planning process needs to be initiated pronto...export is the main game - but re ECT's viability/profit making potential from the VERY 1st module - local use has toooo many positives. Mine to mouth is the ultimate. The profits/incentives are massive to ALL parties. Is it any wonder WHY the sp is runnnning?

Bottom line for us is the confirmed ARUP $31 opex (or less) and the $51 FOB figures compared with the proposed AEC $65 FOB. Compare it with the $100 FOB Hunter Valley producers need to survive and its clear Coldry has a massive margin export future from LV. But the "prize" imo is the initial local potential burning. International Coldry/Matmor potential customers old/new will be lining up when they see the 1st commercial module producing imo.

Bottom bottom line is (sorry to re-state it) its the PEOPLE running ECT/Monash etc that will make all the above happen. Instos invest in people almost as much as techs...imo...looking forward to AGL's May 17 decision...