Lots to be appreciative about after ECT's near death experience. I was hoping for 2.5c by Apr 27...so a few days later already 3.3 and poised to break up...nice indeed.
Seems Coldry will be 1st to market (Rudy will have a bit/AEC dream unlikely/Exergen who knows). Say the initial module is producing early 2014 and the modules to make up the initial 2mtpa follow pronto. What are the options for local use/export?
The World Coal Mag $31 opex (or less if the $18 lignite cost needs to be wiggled down) figure is a nice affirmation of the July 2011 ann Page 11
So Coldrys opex has not blown out over the last year as they have bigtime in the rest of the mining industry. $31 then and $31 now. No doubt Tincom etc are VERY encouraged by that! One of the huge LT LV coal selling points is the massive reserves close to the coast in a VERY low sov risk nation...hence LT the BCE $ can be relatively stable due the underlying lignite throw away cost...nice
Being 1st to market from LY - what about EXISTING rail capacity for export?
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There is ~4mtpa spare capacity there NOW. Being 1st mover - Coldry would have opportunity to have the lions share/if not all of that IF needed.
What about local use?
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So ALL existing LV generators can reduce emissions by ~8% by burning a 20% Coldry blend with minimal plant modifications.
Massive statement that even LT holders take for granted.
8% Co2 reduction in the bag - surely that would please all the various Govt/Green/Industry/Union/Employer groups...?
Isnt the Govt's target just 5% by 2020? Isnt the whole idea of the July 1 carbon price aimed almost solely at the LV lignite burners? So simply by using Coldry the 5% is well and truly in the bag...interesting and irresistible by TOO many parties?
Do the figures on how many mtpa Coldry is needed locally if even just LY A/B and Yallourn burn 20%...mine to mouth economics. Presently the Valley burns ~70 mtpa lignite. I get the feeling they are going to want wayyyy more than the initial 2mtpa that is proposed...lol
In the past the above was a theory - but now with the DreamTeam/Monash/KCoal/DFT/modules/Pilbara Govt backing etc - it all fits very very sweetly imo.
So I dont see the export/rail concerns as paramount at all to ECT's prosperity. I notice the 25 post 6 hour dummy spit yesterday by the dizzy one was mostly about him wanting an immediate answer from me re FOB details. It wasnt/isnt an issue to me hence I didnt reply...I could see the bait - but watched the afternoons posting with interest!
Sure the obvious LT picture is HUGELY export focussed and the planning process needs to be initiated pronto...export is the main game - but re ECT's viability/profit making potential from the VERY 1st module - local use has toooo many positives. Mine to mouth is the ultimate. The profits/incentives are massive to ALL parties. Is it any wonder WHY the sp is runnnning?
Bottom line for us is the confirmed ARUP $31 opex (or less) and the $51 FOB figures compared with the proposed AEC $65 FOB. Compare it with the $100 FOB Hunter Valley producers need to survive and its clear Coldry has a massive margin export future from LV. But the "prize" imo is the initial local potential burning. International Coldry/Matmor potential customers old/new will be lining up when they see the 1st commercial module producing imo.
Bottom bottom line is (sorry to re-state it) its the PEOPLE running ECT/Monash etc that will make all the above happen. Instos invest in people almost as much as techs...imo...looking forward to AGL's May 17 decision...
ESI Price at posting:
3.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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