breakout?, page-3

In my opinion dividend for this year is almost ruled out. As the average CU prices for the second half was around $3.60 (so far) and AUD was at around 1.04 majority of the second half. I will be really surprised if they manage even a brk even for the full year and after considering the loss ABY posted for the first half.

Good buys (must be the same old Goldman Sachs or JP morgan) has happened in the last few days must have been backed up by CU price prediction for the next year or so by these analyst.

Great advantage ABY has got ATM:
1. The CASH they are holding. Even though it will be book loss for this year I am sure they would have made some cash profits (i am excluding depreciation and other non-cash expenses from the loss). ABY must have around $80-100Mn (around 25-30 cents cash per share).

For the next year (year ending March 2014):-

2. If AUD is going to slightly fall (at par with USD) and CU prices comes up at around 3.8-3.9 levels. They will start to make reasonable profit (anywhere between 5 to 8 cents)

3. They have promised to reduce the cost through various means. If they manage to do this effectively, profit can move up to 10-12cents.
4. Dividend policy is good, they distribute good amount of profit as dividend.

The above must have been playing in the mind of the analyst rather than just only dividend and profit for the current year, in my opinion these two are almost ruled out for the current year. But I will be extremely happy if proved otherwise.