Your timings re CF calcs may be correct, always somewhat assumptive, might have a point re propensity to delay also
Doesn't change my point though, Say you're correct re CF...
1) If they had information back saying "no dice" how will they not need to report it to market ? They haven't. Harder still to not declare with C14 there?
2) If they knew there was nothing coming back what strategy do they run? (New Dev, Ph2c ?, close door, fire sale alternate buyer / purpose?). What prefacing announcement would that require ? What lead time ? What sales pitch
3) Mid year they stated there was interest (Becker) - how do we simply assume that is a zero probability after subsequent appointment of C!4? Not to say its impossible to apply some dystopian Lux-o- Logic, but I don't think its a 0/100 probability assumption. if we run the paranoia - where does it end?
4) I think you need to reframe your view of sale value, especially in context of current SP and market size, level of development, fig paid in market. Its demonstrated something beneficial is here in multiple segments and repeatedly. Process is novel, the potential is massive. The value per above from a defensive as well as direct potential is likely unknown based on limited scale of trails conducted to date. Sure it looks a little like a science project
But what science doesn't in its infancy ? Wasnt Toothpaste essentially soap in the 1800s... The Colgate man didnt pop up with a shiny triple fluoride, extra mint, pump pack, cavity guard product day one right?
Regardless, As I say, every day that goes compresses the timeline for CR, the CR has a lead time, as such I see it as a litmus test, agree not a perfect indicator today though. Also, potential doesn't equate to definitive implementation, substitutes etc. What I do like about this is its breadth.
(20min delay)