Brent Oil price prediction 2022-2024, page-7

"Keep in mind the global economy did just fine with 100+ average oil for a few years from 2010-2013 period.
now the oil intensity of the economy is lower and we have much more money supply both of which mean that the economy can tolerate even higher prices before it starts to hurt. Probably $140 and above is equal to those years of 100 a decade ago."

Good observation.

But that's not all.

Besides the ESG-driven under-investment in new supply, there is another structural change in the market, namely in the form of governments that have become far more populist in recent years (when last did you hear government budgets being cast using terms such as "fiscal discipline" or "austerity"?), with a demonstrated willingness to directly subsidise households and businesses to shield them against rising energy prices.

The implications of this is sustained strong demand even higher prices.

In other words, governments are interfering in the market not only in constraining supply but also in supporting demand.

It's a very powerful combination for oil prices reaching levels a lot higher than previous cycles.

When it comes to investing, I'm always wary of saying, "This time is different."

But this time, it really is different.

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